Article 180
Requirements specific to PD estimation
1.
In quantifying the risk parameters to be associated with rating grades or pools, institutions shall apply the following requirements specific to PD estimation to exposures to central governments and central banks, exposures to regional governments, local authorities and public sector entities, exposures to institutions and exposures to corporates:
(a)
institutions shall estimate PDs by obligor grade from long run averages of one-year default rates. PD estimates for obligors that are highly leveraged or for obligors whose assets are predominantly traded assets shall reflect the performance of the underlying assets based on periods of stressed volatilities;
(b)
for purchased corporate receivables institutions may estimate the EL by obligor grade from long run averages of one-year realised default rates;
(c)
if an institution derives long run average estimates of PDs and LGDs for purchased corporate receivables from an estimate of EL, and an appropriate estimate of PD or LGD, the process for estimating total losses shall meet the overall standards for estimation of PD and LGD set out in this part, and the outcome shall be consistent with the concept of LGD as set out in Article 181(1)(a);
(d)
institutions shall use PD estimation techniques only with supporting analysis. Institutions shall recognise the importance of judgmental considerations in combining results of techniques and in making adjustments for limitations of techniques and information;
(e)
to the extent that an institution uses data on internal default experience for the estimation of PDs, the estimates shall be reflective of current underwriting standards and of any differences in the rating system that generated the data and the current rating system; where underwriting standards or rating systems have changed, after including an appropriate adjustment, the institution shall add a greater margin of conservatism in its estimate of PD related to the expected range of estimation errors that is not already covered by the appropriate adjustment;
(f)
to the extent that an institution associates or maps its internal grades to the scale used by an ECAI or similar organisations and then attributes the default rate observed for the external organisation's grades to the institution's grades, mappings shall be based on a comparison of internal rating criteria to the criteria used by the external organisation and on a comparison of the internal and external ratings of any common obligors. Biases or inconsistencies in the mapping approach or underlying data shall be avoided. The criteria of the external organisation underlying the data used for quantification shall be oriented to default risk only and not reflect transaction characteristics. The analysis undertaken by the institution shall include a comparison of the default definitions used, subject to the requirements in Article 178. The institution shall document the basis for the mapping;
(g)
to the extent that an institution uses statistical default prediction models it is allowed to estimate PDs as the simple average of default-probability estimates for individual obligors in a given grade. The institution's use of default probability models for this purpose shall meet the standards specified in Article 174;
(h)
irrespective of whether an institution is using external, internal, or pooled data sources, or a combination of the three, for its PD estimation, the length of the underlying historical observation period used shall be at least five years for at least one source;
(i)
irrespective of the method used to estimate PD, institutions shall estimate a PD for each rating grade based on the observed historical average one-year default rate that is an arithmetic average based on the number of obligors (count weighted); other approaches, including exposure-weighted averages, shall not be permitted.
For the purposes of the first subparagraph, point (h), of this paragraph where the available observation period spans a longer period for any source, and where those data are relevant, that longer period shall be used. The data shall include a representative mix of good and bad years of the economic cycle relevant for the type of exposures. Subject to the permission of competent authorities, institutions which have not received the permission of the competent authority pursuant to Article 143 to use own estimates of LGD or to use IRB-CCF, may use, when they implement the IRB Approach, relevant data covering a period of two years. The period to be covered shall be increased by one year each year until relevant data cover at least five years.
2.
For retail exposures, the following requirements shall apply:
(a)
institutions shall estimate PDs by obligor or facility grade or pool from long run averages of one-year default rates, and default rates shall be calculated at facility level only where the definition of default is applied at individual credit facility level pursuant to Article 178(1), second subparagraph;
(b)
(c)
institutions shall regard internal data for assigning exposures to grades or pools as the primary source of information for estimating loss characteristics. Institutions may use external data (including pooled data) or statistical models for quantification provided that the following strong links both exist:
(i)
between the institution's process of assigning exposures to grades or pools and the process used by the external data source; and
(ii)
between the institution's internal risk profile and the composition of the external data;
(d)
if an institution derives long run average estimates of PD and LGD for retail exposures from an estimate of total losses and an appropriate estimate of PD or LGD, the process for estimating total losses shall meet the overall standards for estimation of PD and LGD set out in this part, and the outcome shall be consistent with the concept of LGD as set out in point (a) of Article 181(1);
(e)
irrespective of whether an institution is using external, internal or pooled data sources, or a combination of the three, for its PD estimation, the length of the underlying historical observation period used shall be at least five years for at least one source;
(f)
institutions shall identify and analyse expected changes of risk parameters over the life of credit exposures (seasoning effects).
For purchased retail receivables, institutions may use external and internal reference data. Institutions shall use all relevant data sources as points of comparison.
For the purposes of the first subparagraph, point (a), the PD shall be based on the observed historical average one-year default rate.
For the purposes of the first subparagraph, point (e), where the available observation spans a longer period for any source, and where those data are relevant, that longer period shall be used. The data shall include a representative mix of good and bad years of the economic cycle relevant for the type of exposures. Subject to the permission of the competent authorities, institutions may use, when they implement the IRB Approach, relevant data covering a period of two years. The period to be covered shall be increased by one year each year until relevant data cover at least five years.
3.
EBA shall develop draft regulatory technical standards to specify the methodologies in accordance with which competent authorities shall assess the methodology of an institution for estimating PD pursuant to Article 143.
EBA shall submit those draft regulatory technical standards to the Commission by 10 July 2026.
Power is delegated to the Commission to supplement this Regulation by adopting the regulatory technical standards referred to in the first subparagraph of this paragraph in accordance with Articles 10 to 14 of Regulation (EU) No 1093/2010.